Forecasting the impact of losing whale protections

This project will study how proposed rollbacks to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and Endangered Species Act (ESA) could affect whales and coastal economies. These laws have helped whale populations recover since the 1970s, supporting billions of dollars in economic activity and thousands of jobs in the Blue Economy. Focusing on humpback whales along the U.S. West Coast, the project will examine how weakening these protections could increase whale deaths from fishing gear entanglements, which are already more than double what endangered populations can sustain. Climate change is making these risks worse by pushing whale prey closer to shore and reducing its nutritional value. The project will model whale population outcomes under different policy scenarios, predict future whale habitat, and provide practical science to NOAA’s Take Reduction Team. Overall, this work will show why federal protections matter, the dangers of weakening them, and what non-government solutions could help protect whales and ocean ecosystems if federal action declines.

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