Using AI and satellites to verify climate benefits of forests and other ecosystems

Cloaked in the shadow of a nearly unbroken canopy, massive stretches of the Amazon rainforest remain as mysterious as outer galaxies. That sense of the unknown can extend to skepticism over just how much carbon – one of the primary greenhouse gases fueling climate change – can be absorbed and stored by keeping those forests intact. But advances in satellite data, remote sensing, and artificial intelligence could open a new era of discovery by revealing the forest’s true potential to store excess carbon from the atmosphere. A preprint study coauthored by researchers at Stanford University, Brown University, and Planet Labs, reveals how to benchmark and trust these new capabilities, leading to more transparent and profitable carbon markets, as well as less deforestation. Ahead of the UN climate change conference in Brazil Nov. 10-21, the findings highlight the urgent need and opportunity to accelerate natural climate solutions.

“Because we don’t measure and value these things, the incentive is to convert these lands to other uses, like farming or mining,” said study coauthor Tara O’Shea, managing director of the Natural Climate Solutions Initiative at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. “We need to convince policymakers and organizations that establish market standards that these are trustworthy measurement capabilities.”

Trust in the carbon economy 

O’Shea and her colleagues used a new digital system that employs satellite and LiDAR data to measure the structure and carbon storage of forests around the world. They compared datasets and refined machine ­learning models to detect changes in tree biomass and carbon stocks across large regions. The goal: a scalable, transparent, and auditable system for monitoring forest-based carbon accurately and consistently (read O’Shea’s related blog post).

The system produced detailed 30-meter maps showing tree height, canopy cover, and aboveground carbon. Tests comparing the approach’s results with trusted field and satellite data from NASA, the European Space Agency and other organizations, showed it performed well, with strong agreement across national and global scales.

A lot is riding on accurate, transparent, and cost-effective measurements. Many developing nations hope to earn payments under international climate frameworks that reward nations based on the amount of emissions they reduce by avoiding deforestation and restoring logged or burned forests. Companies seeking voluntary carbon credits for reducing emissions demand rigorous verification of climate gains created by forest conservation efforts, and buyers in regulated markets — such as those subject to deforestation import rules in the EU — need proof that their supply chains are clean. In the meantime, about 20 million acres of forest disappear every year.

Profitable solutions

The Natural Climate Solutions Initiative (NCSI) brings Stanford scholars together with cross-sector experts to address climate change through a combination of science, policy, and markets. It aims to expand understanding and awareness of the climate benefits natural ecosystems, such as soil and wetlands, provide, while advancing incentives for their sustainable management. For example, the forest measurement, reporting and verification research is intended to feed into policy dialogues, carbon-market design, and field deployment. Brazil’s upcoming role as host of the UN climate conference amplifies forest transparency as a bargaining chip. If host nations can confidently demonstrate forest performance, they may unlock greater global financing.

“Natural climate solutions have enormous potential — but without credibility, they stay on the sidelines,” said Chris Field, the Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “We’re working to turn nature into a climate partner people can trust and invest in.”

Investors are watching closely

“For the first time in human history, natural systems are starting to fail and the effects are becoming material to business,” said Eric Wilburn, a program officer for nature finance at the Bezos Earth Fund. “Nature is key for resilience in the face of a changing climate, particularly around water and temperature regulation.”

As an example, Wilburn pointed to Brazil, where farmers once had two crop cycles per year but now can only do one because the rainy season has grown shorter. Similar stories are playing out in Western Africa, the Central U.S., and other regions.

“Absent significant policy, it’s very hard to get a higher return for nature,” Wilburn said. The best way to get a return and get to the point where private capital starts to flow to nature writ large is to lean into risk and understand how nature can decrease risks.”

Ensuring trustworthy measurements of natural climate solutions, such as forest carbon storage, would allow a tropical nation to log monthly changes in tree coverage, sell verified credits only when it reverses deforestation, and quickly pass carbon credit payments to local communities and governments. It would also allow a company to offset its emissions with credits grounded in independently validated remote sensing.

"Nature is hard to quantify,” said Amy Luers, the head of sustainability science and innovation at Microsoft. "At the same time, we have to ensure that every carbon credit we retire against our emissions represents a real, verified ton of CO2 removed from the atmosphere. Emerging digital MRV tools like improved remote sensing tools for biomass quantification can not only improve our ability to quantify carbon removal, but can also drive down the cost to do so, broadening access to carbon markets."

The role of universities and applied science is critical in building trustworthy measurement systems, according to O’Shea. In the lead up to UN climate talks in Brazil, NCSI brought together forest carbon standards experts, policymakers, and financers to activate the role of universities in accelerating practical solutions in this realm.

"We already know natural ecosystems are our biggest ally in the fight against climate change," said O’Shea. "The trick is valuing and empowering them in that fight.”


Field is also a professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability; a professor of biology and the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences; and a senior fellow at the Precourt Institute for Energy.