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20x20 | Strengthening Bay Area sea-level rise adaptation

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The Center for Ocean Solutions (COS) and the Natural Capital Alliance (NatCap) co-led a multi-year process with city, county, regional, and state officials across California to support local-level climate adaptation planning. The team produced a compilation of coastal adaptation policy briefs on a wide range of topics including seawalls, wetland restoration, and financial, legal, and regulatory mechanisms for addressing sea-level rise. They also developed a user-friendly, beta online viewer that allows coastal planners to interact with a statewide analysis of coastal habitats and identify which locations are prime for certain coastal adaptation strategies.

Later work at NatCap focused on how nature-based solutions might contribute to sea-level rise adaptation strategies in the San Francisco Bay Area. The team conducted ecosystem service modeling for the Bay Area Conservation and Development Commission’s regional vulnerability assessment, Adapting to Rising Tides, and partnered with San Mateo County's Office of Sustainability and the San Francisco Estuary Institute to co-create guidance for sea-level rise adaptation, including fact sheets for different areas throughout the county, and information about which locations are best-suited for nature-based solutions.

The work found that conservation and restoration projects can provide the same level of flood protection as traditional solutions (i.e., seawalls and other gray infrastructure). But they can also deliver up to eight times the benefits of seawalls for stormwater nutrient pollution reduction, recreation, carbon sequestration, and the provision of habitat for a species of special concern. The research highlighted the need for regional coordination to minimize flooding and associated damages throughout the whole nine-county Bay Area through strategic placement of gray infrastructure and the use of nature-based adaptation strategies. For instance, if a seawall were built along the San Jose shoreline, communities throughout the Bay, from Redwood City to Napa and Solano Counties, would face an additional $723 million in flood damage costs after just one high tide, according to the models.

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